Four hurricane seasons have passed since Hurricane Ian came ashore at Cayo Costa as a Category 4 and reshaped Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, and Cape Coral. Southwest Florida has been rebuilding ever since. The 2026 season is now more than two months old, and so far it has been quiet: two named storms, no hurricanes, and nothing that came close to Lee or Collier County.

That is worth saying plainly, because it is also misleading. By the calendar, we are past the halfway point. By risk, we are nowhere near it. Roughly 95 percent of major hurricane activity in the Atlantic happens between mid-August and mid-October, and the peak is still ahead of us. What follows is the month-by-month picture for the rest of this season: what NOAA’s revised August forecast says, what the two storms so far actually tell us, and what needs to happen at your property in the next few weeks.

The 2026 Season at a Glance

Season dates: June 1, 2026 to November 30, 2026

NOAA revised its outlook downward on August 6. The season now looks quieter than it did in May, and forecasters are considerably more confident about it:

Probability outlook: NOAA raised the odds of a below-normal season from 55 percent in May to 75 percent in August, with a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season and just 5 percent for above-normal. That is an unusually confident seasonal call.

Key driver: El Niño is no longer a forecast. NOAA confirmed its arrival in June, and conditions are now expected to reach strong or very strong status and hold through the fall. El Niño increases wind shear across the Atlantic, which tears tropical systems apart before they organize. One additional detail matters this year: Atlantic sea surface temperatures are running near average rather than at the record highs of recent seasons, which removes the mechanism that overrode El Niño suppression in 2023. That is why confidence is higher now than it has been in previous El Niño years.

What Has Actually Happened So Far

Two named storms have formed. Both were Gulf systems, both were weak, and neither produced meaningful impacts here.

Tropical Storm Arthur (mid-June): Formed in the warm Gulf waters off the Texas coast. Arthur brought record rainfall to parts of Louisiana and spawned tornadoes along the Gulf coast. No effects in the 239.

Tropical Storm Bertha (July 19 to 24): Formed south of Panama City and peaked at 60 mph on July 21 before tracking west along the northern Gulf coast, making two landfalls as a disorganized, heavily sheared system. Wind gusts reached the mid-40s in Apalachicola and Panama City. The Panhandle lost dozens of sea turtle nests. Moisture from Bertha fed flooding as far inland as Tennessee and North Carolina. Again, nothing significant on this coast.

The pattern is consistent with an El Niño season. Both storms formed close to home rather than out in the deep Atlantic, both were short-lived, and the Main Development Region between Africa and the Caribbean has stayed notably quiet through what is usually its warm-up period. As of the second week of August, the National Hurricane Center is watching three disturbances, including a system near the Cabo Verde islands, which is the first real sign of the seasonal ramp-up.

A slow start is not evidence of a safe finish. In an average season, the fourth named storm does not arrive until roughly August 15 and the first hurricane until around August 11. On that measure, 2026 is behind schedule, but not dramatically so.

Why a Below-Normal Forecast Does Not Mean a Safe Season

Seasonal forecasts count storms. They do not tell you where those storms go, and they say nothing at all about how strong the ones that do form will get. Two seasons make the point better than any statistic:

• 1992: Seven named storms all year, one of the quietest seasons on record, forecast as below normal and verified as below normal. The fourth system of that season was Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 that struck Homestead on August 24, destroyed roughly 25,500 homes, damaged around 101,000 more, and rewrote the building code every home in this state is now built to. A decaying El Niño was part of why the season was so quiet.
• 2004: Also an El Niño year, and it produced 15 named storms. Four hurricanes crossed Florida in six weeks. Hurricane Charley struck Punta Gorda as a Category 4 on August 13, earlier than most people expected a major hurricane that season, and caught this area underprepared.

The lesson from both is the same one NOAA repeats every year, and repeated when releasing the 2026 outlook: it only takes one. El Niño reliably reduces the number of storms that form. It does not affect the strength of the ones that make it through.

Ian is the local version of this. It developed late in September 2022 and made landfall at Cayo Costa as a Category 4 with 150 mph winds and a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet across Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel Island. The forecast cone shifted east in the final 36 hours. Homes that were expected to miss the eye took a direct hit instead.

The relevant question for a property owner was never how many storms will form. It is what happens if one of them finds the Gulf and turns east.

A Month-by-Month Timeline of the 2026 Season

The season is not evenly distributed. The threat window for this stretch of coast is narrower still, and we are entering it now.

June (Weeks 1 to 4): The Quiet Opening

What happened: Tropical Storm Arthur formed mid-month in the Gulf off Texas. Nothing else developed.

Early-season storms are uncommon, but when they form they tend to spin up in the Gulf of Mexico or the western Caribbean, which are exactly the waters that feed straight into this coast. They develop fast and offer short warning windows, often 24 to 72 hours from named-storm formation to landfall, against the five to seven days of notice a long-track Cape Verde system usually gives.

Why it matters now: June is the ideal month for shutter installation, motorization upgrades, and repair work requiring permitting and inspection. That window has closed for this season, which means anything still outstanding is now competing for a shrinking pool of installer availability. Permit timelines in Lee and Collier counties stretch from weeks to months once a named system enters the Gulf.

July (Weeks 5 to 8): Slow Build

What happened: Tropical Storm Bertha formed off the Panhandle on July 20 and tracked west across the northern Gulf.

July typically produces one or two named storms, usually weak and short-lived, and Bertha fit that profile exactly. African easterly waves start crossing the Atlantic during this month, though most fizzle in dry Saharan air. This year almost all of them did.

August (Weeks 9 to 13): The Ramp Begins, and Where We Are Now

Activity climbs sharply from mid-August onward. Cape Verde systems become the dominant threat while the Gulf stays active underneath them. Two dates on the calendar this month belong to storms that hit this state during quiet or supposedly suppressed seasons: August 13, 2004 was Charley, and August 24, 1992 was Andrew.

What to do now: This is the last comfortable working window of the season. Test every shutter on the property. Roll-downs should deploy smoothly without binding, accordions should glide on their tracks, and storm panels should be inventoried and labeled by window. Lubricate every moving part. A shutter that worked fine last October may have seized over an inactive summer. Confirm the generator runs and the fuel is fresh, refill prescriptions, and photograph the home for insurance, including every exterior elevation, every interior room, and every receipt for shutter work. If you have motorized shutters, charge the backup batteries and check that the manual override crank is on hand and that every adult in the house knows how to use it.

September (Weeks 14 to 17): The Peak

September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic season, and this month carries the local record. Hurricane Irma made its final landfall in the state on September 10, 2017 at Cudjoe Key before tracking up this coast and hitting Naples, Marco Island, and Fort Myers. Ian struck on September 28, 2022. Helene came ashore in the Big Bend on September 26, 2024 and still pushed significant surge into Naples and Marco.

The pattern is unambiguous: September is the highest-risk month for this coast.

What to do: Read every Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center rather than skimming it. An unorganized blob of weather in the Caribbean in mid-September can be a Category 4 inside your cone within five days. If a storm enters the Gulf, deploy non-critical shutters early, meaning lanai screens, accordions in guest rooms, and panels on rarely-used doors. That leaves far less to do in the final 24 hours.

October (Weeks 18 to 21): The Underestimated Month

If September is the worst month statistically, October is the month people here are most likely to relax and pay for it. Hurricane Wilma struck near Cape Romano on October 24, 2005. Hurricane Milton made landfall at Siesta Key on October 9, 2024, as a Category 3 with significant effects across this area.

October storms tend to form in the western Caribbean, where the wind-shear effect of El Niño is weaker than it is in the deep Atlantic. That is a large part of why a below-average season can still deliver a brutal October here specifically, and it is the single most important caveat attached to this year’s quiet forecast.

What to do: Do not pack the storm kit away. By mid-October most people have mentally moved on. That is precisely when Wilma and Milton arrived.

November (Weeks 22 to 26): Winding Down

Activity drops sharply, though storms still form, usually in the western Caribbean. November systems are rarely major hurricanes but can produce significant rainfall and flooding.

What to do: End-of-season review. Document any damage, even minor, for insurance records. November through May is the optimal window for major shutter projects: installers have open schedules, permitting moves faster, and no weather pressure is forcing a rushed decision.

The 2026 Atlantic Storm Names

The World Meteorological Organization assigns names ahead of each season. The 2026 list rotates back into use after last being used in 2020, the most active Atlantic season on record. Two names are now spent. Cristobal is next.

Arthur and Bertha (both used), Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred.

A few details worth knowing:

• Leah is new. It replaces Laura, retired after the 2020 storm that caused catastrophic damage in Louisiana. A name is retired when a storm is destructive enough that reusing it would be inappropriate.
• The list skips Q, U, X, Y, and Z, simply because there are too few common names starting with those letters.
• If a season exceeds 21 storms, as happened in 2005 and 2020, the WMO draws on a supplemental list. It no longer uses the Greek alphabet for this, to avoid public confusion. With 2 storms on the board in mid-August, 2026 will not come close.

The Local Track Record

Lee and Collier counties have absorbed more named-storm impacts over the past 22 years than nearly any equivalent stretch of coastline in the country:

• 2004, Hurricane Charley: Category 4 landfall at Cayo Costa, then a direct hit on Punta Gorda. Cape Coral and Fort Myers took major wind damage.
• 2005, Hurricane Wilma: Crossed the state from Cape Romano. The Naples area was significantly affected.
• 2017, Hurricane Irma: Tracked directly up this coast after a Cudjoe Key landfall. Naples, Marco Island, Bonita Springs, and Fort Myers all sustained substantial damage.
• 2022, Hurricane Ian: Catastrophic Category 4 landfall at Cayo Costa. Storm surge of 10 to 15 feet erased structures on Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel Island. Hundreds of thousands of homes were affected, and recovery is still ongoing in some neighborhoods.
• 2024, Hurricanes Helene and Milton: Helene struck the Big Bend but pushed surge into Collier County. Milton made landfall at Siesta Key with effects across this area.

Hurricane-resistant building codes, enacted here after Andrew in 1992, require that exterior openings on hurricane-prone homes are either impact-rated or protected by code-approved shutters. Engineers studying post-Andrew failures found that the overwhelming majority of structural collapses began with a windborne debris breach. Once a window or door blows out, internal pressure spikes and roofs can lift off.

That is the entire purpose of hurricane shutters. Accordion, roll-down, storm panel, or hurricane screen, every code-approved system is independently tested against a nine-pound 2×4 fired at 50 feet per second, then subjected to thousands of cycles of pressure loading. A code-compliant shutter protects the window behind it and the structure around it.

Your Shutter Readiness Checklist for the Rest of 2026

Hurricane shutters differ from impact windows in one critical way: they require action. Most must be deployed before a storm, and a shutter that will not close on the day you need it is of no use to anyone. This checklist is built around shutter readiness and retimed for where the season actually stands.

This Week, If You Have Not Started

• Inspect every shutter on the property. Roll-downs should deploy smoothly, accordions should glide on their tracks, and storm panels should be inventoried and stored somewhere you can actually find them.
• Book any installation, motorization, or repair work now. Permit and inspection timelines compress sharply once a system is in the Gulf, and installer schedules fill first.
• Document the exterior and interior with date-stamped photos.
• Review homeowner insurance, including separate flood and wind policies.
• Trim trees back from shutter tracks and rolling housings.

Before September 1

• Full deployment test of every shutter. Anything that binds, sticks, or makes noise needs service before the peak.
• Lubricate tracks, rollers, and motor housings.
• For motorized shutters, test the backup battery and confirm the manual hand-crank override works and is accessible.
• Stock non-perishable food for seven days and water at one gallon per person per day.
• Refill prescriptions.

72 Hours Before a Forecast Strike

• Deploy non-essential shutters early: lanais, guest rooms, rarely-used doors. This leaves less to do in the final 24 hours.
• Charge motorized shutter backup batteries.
• Charge all devices and battery packs.
• Fill vehicle gas tanks.
• Withdraw cash.

24 to 48 Hours Before a Forecast Strike

• Deploy all remaining shutters. Storm panels installed, accordions closed, roll-downs lowered.
• Move outdoor furniture, grills, and planters inside.
• Fill bathtubs with water.
• Photograph the property condition again.

During the Storm

• Stay in an interior room, away from any unshuttered glass.
• Do not attempt to deploy shutters during the storm. A panel or accordion is far more likely to injure you in 80 mph winds than to protect you. If something was not shuttered before landfall, it stays unshuttered.
• Monitor official National Hurricane Center and local emergency management updates.

After the Storm

• Leave shutters deployed until sustained winds drop below tropical-storm force.
• Inspect for damage before fully retracting. Bent slats, dented panels, and stuck motors need repair before the next storm.
• Document any damage immediately for insurance.

Where to Watch the Tropics

There is no shortage of storm coverage in this market, and much of it is written to be alarming rather than useful. Three sources are worth going to directly:

• The National Hurricane Center: The Tropical Weather Outlook is issued every six hours through the season and covers anything with development potential over the next seven days. This is the primary source that every other outlet is reading from.
• Lee County and Collier County emergency management: Evacuation zone lookups, shelter locations, and the actual evacuation orders. Your zone is the number that decides what you do, and it is worth knowing before a storm is named.
• Your local National Weather Service office: Forecast discussions carry more detail on local timing, surge, and rainfall than the national cone graphic does.

One caution about the cone. It shows the probable track of the center of the storm, not the extent of the damage, and the center stays inside it only about two-thirds of the time. Ian is the local reminder of what the other third looks like.

What This Means for Your Property

The 2026 forecast is quieter than it looked in May, and forecasters are more confident about it than they have been in years. Both of those things are true and neither one protects a single window.

Andrew arrived in a seven-storm season. Charley arrived in an El Niño year. The variable that decides what happens at your address is not how many storms NOAA counts by November. It is whether your shutters are inspected, deployable, and ready on the day the cone shifts your way. There are about four weeks until the peak. That is enough time to fix a shutter that sticks, and not enough time to wait.

About Shutters239

Shutters239 has been the hurricane protection company for this coast for over 35 years. Owner Joe grew up in the industry, and his father ran a shutter business in the area starting in the 1980s. Joe served as Installation Design Manager on more than $60 million worth of installations before founding Shutters239 in 2016.

Every system we install, whether accordion, roll-down, storm panel, or hurricane screen, meets or exceeds Lee and Collier County code requirements, and Joe is personally involved in every design. If you are preparing for the peak of this season, contact us for a free in-home consultation in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Naples, Bonita Springs, Marco Island, or anywhere else in the 239.

This article reflects conditions as of August 2026 and will be updated as the season progresses. Published: August 2026. Sources: NOAA National Hurricane Center, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update (August 6, 2026), World Meteorological Organization, Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project.